Housing, jobs key to lifting S&P toward record

NEW YORK --
With it appearing that Washington lawmakers are working their way past the “fiscal cliff,” many analysts say that the outlook for stocks in 2013 is good, as a recovering housing market and an improving jobs outlook helps the economy maintain a slow, but steady recovery.

Reasonable returns in 2013 would send the S&P 500 toward, and possibly past, its record close of 1,565 reached in October 2007.

A mid-year rally in 2012 pushed stocks to their highest in more than four years. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average posted strong gains in 2012. Those advances came despite uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election and bouts of turmoil from Europe, where policy makers finally appear to be getting a grip on the region’s debt crisis.

“As you remove little bits of uncertainty, investors can then once again return to focusing on the fundamentals,” says Joseph Tanious, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. “Corporate America is actually doing quite well.”

Although earnings growth of S&P 500 listed companies dipped as low as 0.8 percent in the summer, analysts are predicting that it will rebound to average 9.5 percent for 2013, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. Companies have also been hoarding cash. The amount of cash and cash-equivalents being held by companies listed in the S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high $1 trillion at the end of September, 65 percent more than five years ago, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Assuming a budget deal is reached in a reasonable amount of time, investors will be more comfortable owning stocks in 2013, allowing valuations to rise, says Tanious.

Stocks in the S&P 500 index are currently trading on a price-to-earnings multiple of about 13.5, compared with the average of 17.9 since 1988, according to S&P Capital IQ data. The ratio rises when investors are willing to pay more for a stock’s future earnings potential.

The stock market will also likely face less drag from the European debt crisis this year, said Steven Bulko, the chief investment officer at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. While policy makers in Europe have yet to come up with a comprehensive solution to the region’s woes, they appear to have a better handle on the region’s problems than they have for quite some time.

Stocks fell in the second quarter of 2012 as investors fretted that the euro region’s government debt crisis was about to engulf Spain and possibly Italy, increasing the chances of a dramatic slowdown in global economic growth.

“There is still some heavy lifting that needs to be done in Europe,” said Bulko. Now, though, “we are dealing with much more manageable risk than we have had in the past few years.”

Next year may also see an increase in mergers and acquisitions as companies seeks to make use of the cash on their balance sheets, says Jarred Kessler, global head of equities at broker Cantor Fitzgerald.

While the number of M&A deals has gradually crept higher in the past four years, the dollar value of the deals remains well short of the total reached five years ago. U.S. targeted acquisitions totaled $964 billion through Dec. 27, according to data tracking firm Dealogic. That’s slightly down from last year’s total of $1 trillion and about 40 percent lower than in 2007, when deals worth $1.6 trillion were struck.

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Man grazed by stray bullet in Miami on New Year’s Eve

A stray bullet fired into the air just after midnight on New Year’s Eve struck a man as he celebrated at a party in Miami, according to police.

The bullet grazed the man’s upper left shoulder. Paramedics treated him outside the Allapattah home at Northwest 25th Avenue and 32nd Street. The man, who was not identified, wasn’t taken to a hospital.

Miami police spokesman Detective Willie Moreno confirmed that the victim was struck by a stray bullet.

Homeowner Randy Ruiz said the injured man was a friend of a friend who was visiting his home on New Year’s Eve.

“We had a lot of friends and family in my yard, and fireworks were being fired off,” Ruiz said. “Just after midnight, one of the guests complained of blood on his shirt. So we quickly ran over to see what was going on and saw there was blood on his left arm.”

Neighbor Barbara Jimeno, who has three grandchildren between the ages of one and four, said she was alarmed by what happened.

“It could happen to me or my grandchildren, who live around the block,” she said.

The injury followed a series of warnings from the Miami mayor, Miami police and activists about the dangers of firing bullets into the air on New Years Eve.

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Armed robbers hit Paris Apple store

PARIS (Reuters) – Armed robbers targeted an Apple Inc store in central Paris on New Year’s Eve, taking thousands of euros (dollars) worth of goods, a police official said on Tuesday.

The robbery took place at about 9 p.m. (1900 GMT) on Monday, three hours after closing time at one of Apple‘s flagship stores behind the Paris Opera which sells products ranging from iPhones and iPads to Mac computers.

The police official declined to comment on reports the thieves walked away with about 1 million euros ($ 1.32 million) of loot, saying the company was still evaluating the loss.

Christophe Crepin from the police union UNSA told reporters four masked and armed individuals forced their way into the shop and afterwards escaped in a van.

“They were well prepared. As the majority of police were busy watching the Champs Elysees (for New Year’s Eve celebrations), the robbers took advantage of this opportunity,” he said.

($ 1 = 0.7585 euros)

(Reporting By Thierry Leveque and John Irish; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Taylor Swift Harry Styles New Years Eve Kiss

Taylor Swift and Harry Styles had equally amazing 2012's, and they kissed good-bye to the preceding 365 days together in Times Square last night.

After singing on ABC's New Year's Rocking Eve, Swift and Styles braved the crowds to watch the ball drop. And to the hordes of fans who'd gathered to count down to midnight, "Haylor's" ensuing smooch ended up being more captivating than all the twinkling lights in the sky.

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An ugly deal

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was a model of understatement yesterday when he declared: “This shouldn’t be the model for how to do things around here.”

No kidding.

With a pre-dawn vote yesterday, the Senate overwhelmingly approved a compromise package that undoes the Bush tax cuts for individuals making $400,000 a year and families making $450,000, raises several other taxes and limits personal exemptions.

But the deal was far from done late yesterday: In the House, conservative Republicans had serious misgivings with its terms, and while the expectation was that it ultimately will pass, there were no guarantees.

AP

Mitch McConnell

So, barring a GOP revolt, the so-called “fiscal cliff” has been avoided: there will be no automatic tax-rate hike for all Americans instead of just the wealthiest. But, as Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) noted, the cliffhanger has been traded in for “a journey over the fiscal mountains.”

That’s because the last-minute deal simply postponed dealing with spending cuts, entitlement reform and trimming the national debt for another two months.

Indeed, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the package raises taxes by $620 billion while cutting spending by only $15 billion — a 41-1 ratio. Plus it adds $329 billion to the federal deficit in 2013, increasing it by $3.9 trillion over 10 years.

That means an even bigger battle soon. And, almost certainly, an even bigger political drama than the one America just witnessed.

This time, however, Obama will be without his biggest rhetorical weapon: his insistence on what he so misleadingly called “tax fairness.” Which, Republicans hope, means he’ll have to give more ground, provided they hold firm.

Because the fiscal-cliff package does next to nothing on the national debt and the budget deficit, at the risk of damaging the economy as it struggles to move forward.

In fact, the president’s chief goal throughout the talks was blatantly political, to portray the GOP as eager to sacrifice the middle class in order to protect the rich. (How ironic that most Democrats once vehemently opposed what they’re now staunchly defending as “tax cuts for the middle class.”)

Yet Obama — whose only contribution to the negotiations was creating ill will on both sides — made it clear that he hasn’t finished hiking taxes: Even before the House vote, the White House said that “continuing to ask the wealthy to do a little bit more” — i.e., pay even more taxes — “will be part of a balanced approach.”

In other words, he’s going to play the class-warfare card for everything it’s worth.

But the fiscal-cliff compromise actually brings in $200 billion less in tax revenue than did House Speaker John Boehner’s Plan B, which the president opposed (as, embarrassingly for Boehner, did House Republicans).

The whole idea of the “fiscal cliff” was to create a situation so precarious that Washington would have no choice but to reach a comprehensive solution.

But congressional fecklessness and presidential arrogance combined to once again avoid the unpleasant — but necessary — business of restoring the nation’s economic stability.

For all the back-patting now under way on Capitol Hill, the road ahead is sown with mines.

Take 10, America. It ain’t over.

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Florida colleges a bargain, says Kiplinger

Though Florida’s in-state tuition costs more than double what it did only a decade ago, many of the state’s public universities are still a good value, according to the latest annual “Best Values in Public Colleges” list compiled by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance.

Florida schools have long fared well in the magazine’s rankings, with this year being no exception. Six of Florida’s 12 state schools made the top 100, with two — the University of Florida and New College of Florida in Sarasota — keeping their place in the top 10, though both schools slipped slightly from their spots a year ago.

UF landed at No. 3 in this year’s rankings, down from No. 2 last year. New College, meanwhile, slipped two spots from No. 5 to No. 7.

In the case of both schools, Kiplinger’s praised what it described as a combination of strong academics and relative affordability. Though Florida’s price of tuition keeps rising, it is still among the lowest in the country — 40th out of 50 states, according to the College Board.

Kiplinger’s also noted UF’s strong retention rate.

“Students stick around, with only 5 percent leaving after freshman year,” the magazine wrote. “And although Florida is a big school — with 16 colleges, more than 150 research centers and institutes, and the largest undergraduate enrollment in our top 10 — it’s still selective, with a 43 percent admittance rate.”

New College is the complete opposite of UF in terms of size (it enrolls less than 850 students) but Kiplinger’s found it also offers “solid academics” along with the lowest total cost of attendance — $16,181 — of any of the top 10 schools. That figure combines the $6,783 annual tuition and fees with other college expenses such as room and board.

Lower in the Kiplinger’s rankings, four other Florida schools were also recognized. Florida State University came in at No. 26, the University of Central Florida landed at No. 42, the University of South Florida was No. 57 and the University of North Florida was No. 64.

Braulio Colón, executive director of the Florida College Access Network, said Florida families looking for a tuition bargain shouldn’t limit their search to state universities. Florida’s community colleges, Colón said, are high-quality, cost about half as much as state universities, and boast a guaranteed-transfer agreement that is the envy of many other parts of the country. Students who earn an associate in arts degree from a Florida community college are guaranteed admission to a state university, though it may not be to the student’s preferred school.

Long term, Colón said, Florida must overhaul its student financial aid system if it wants to maintain college affordability. The state’s largest college aid program is Bright Futures scholarships — some of which are awarded to affluent families who could afford to pay for college on their own. Helping students with demonstrated need must become more of a priority, Colón said, or college costs could eventually spiral out of reach for some families.

“We are at a turning point, right now, as a state,” Colón said.

To see the Kiplinger list go to: http://www.kiplinger.com/reports/best-college-values/

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Peeping tom suspect nabbed at Forever21 store at Sawgrass Mills mall

A suspected “peeping tom” was arrested Sunday after he was caught with video of women trying on clothes at the Forever21 store at the Sawgrass Mills mall.

Andre Clements, 30, has been charged with video voyeurism and disorderly conduct, Sunrise police said.

A manager at the store became suspicious when Clements, 30, was caught loitering in the dressing rooms. Customers also complained about Clements.

The manager alerted mall security, who called Sunrise police. When police arrived, the manager found several large slits in the curtain which separated the fitting room Clements was in and the adjoining fitting room.

In Clements possession police found a Sony camcorder with videos of young women changing clothes.

Clements admitted taping the women just before police had arrived.

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Movers roundup: Facebook, Best Buy

Among the stock activity stories for Monday, Dec. 31, from AP Business News:

— Shares of Facebook Inc. rose after an analyst said advertising spending was picking up on the Internet social network and raised his rating on its stock.

— Shares of Best Buy Co. rose on light volume as the struggling electronics retailer closed out a rocky year.

— Shares of Duff & Phelps Corp. rose on news that the company had agreed to be acquired.

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Here Come the Crazies

Here’s some scary news: The Cuomo administration is preparing to shove thousands of mentally ill New Yorkers out of supervised settings — where they can be forced to take their medication — into far less restrictive, far more dangerous “community housing.”

This, despite two recent cases of people being fatally shoved from subway platforms — both allegedly by crazy people.

Albany, under pressure from the Obama administration, recently ordered psychiatric facilities not to place any discharged patients in adult homes, where staff can ensure they take their meds.

AP

Andrew Cuomo

Instead, they’ll be placed in “community housing,” without full-time supervision.

This is part of the state’s plan to essentially empty adult homes into community-based “supportive” apartments, leaving up to 6,000 people — including those with schizophrenia — to live on their own, with minimal supervision.

“People with disabilities should have access to community-based services, accessible housing with appropriate supports and employment opportunities,” said Cuomo in an executive order in November.

But as Pat Webdale — whose daughter Kendra was shoved to her death in 1999 by a schizophrenic who’d stopped taking his meds — has warned, “It would be just like deinstitutionalization, the same as putting people on the street.”

And that’s precisely what led to the massive homeless crisis of the 1970s and ’80s.

Indeed, one of those who lives in just such housing — and allegedly receives a whole array of social services — is Jeffrey Hillman, the “homeless” man who roams Midtown and was famously photographed being given a pair of boots by a city cop.

Similarly, according to state Sen. Martin Golden, of 15 residents of Surfside Manor in Far Rockaway who were put in supportive housing, six went back to the adult home, three wound up in a psychiatric hospital, two died and one is homeless.

Yet the Cuomo administration wants to basically empty adult homes, limiting the mentally ill population living there to 25 percent of total residents.

Granted, the move isn’t entirely voluntary: The Obama administration has made clear in numerous states — including New York — that it wants to shut adult homes entirely, saying they illegally segregate the mentally ill. It’s prepared to sue to make that happen.

And if Albany doesn’t move, it could find itself back in front of none other than the imperious federal Judge Nicholas Garaufis, who in 2011 effectively ordered the immediate dismantling of the adult-home system — summarily rejecting every effort by Albany to reach a compromise.

We understand that Cuomo is stuck between a rock and a hard place. And his spokesman insists that the state intends to “ensure that those who need housing will receive the support they need.”

But history teaches — repeatedly — that moving the mentally ill into situations with reduced supervision invites disaster.

As Assemblyman Philip Goldfeder warns, “My biggest fear is that they rush into something in the name of helping people and ultimately hurt them.”

Not to mention endangering the general public.

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South Florida’s biggest business stories of 2012

For South Florida’s economy, 2012 centered on one main question: Would the recovery continue?

The answer: Yes, and slowly.

Housing values continue to climb, unemployment rates shrink, hiring grows and spending strengthens. And yet 2012 ends on the same general theme as 2011: Things are getting better, but at a slow enough pace that South Florida will have to wait at least another year for a healthy recovery to begin.

Behind the broad economic tide, news crashed onto the scene. And now it falls on Business Monday to rank their significance.

We do this each year December as a way to put the year’s business news in perspective. For the rankings, we use three criteria.

First, how important was the news for South Florida’s economy? We only have 10 slots to fill, so the news needs to be big.

Second, how unique was the news to South Florida? National events can have major impacts in South Florida, but we’re looking for news that’s particularly noteworthy to the region.

Third, how unique was the news to this year? Long-term trends can impact an economy for years, but we’re looking for stories clearly linked to 2012.

On to the rankings...

10: One Community One Goal plan released

Miami-Dade’s economic development agency, the Beacon Council, spent more than a year drawing up what’s supposed to be a blueprint for the county’s economic future. We won’t know for years whether the One Community One Goal plan will actually guide leaders’ decisions as they decide on education priorities and corporate-recruitment targets. The authors of this report boasted that they were determined not to have the latest version seen as obsolete the way the 1996 version was. But with hundreds of people involved in the forums that led to the report, One Community One Goal is sure to be cited in debates and discussion about Miami-Dade’s economy for years to come.

9. Ryder gets a new CEO

It was a tumultuous year for the Miami-Dade trucking giant, which spent the summer backing off early predictions of strong recovery for clients. In July, Ryder CEO Gregory Swienton announced companywide cost cuts to combat flat sales in a year he had originally seen as going well. That move included 60 job cuts at Ryder’s headquarters in western Miami-Dade, out of 450 across the country The end of 2012 brought another big announcement: Swienton was retiring in two weeks, and handing over the top job to his longtime deputy, Ryder COO Robert Sanchez.

Swienton, 63, said he was looking forward to getting back to Texas, where most of his grandchildren live. The board praised Swienton’s 13-year tenure, which saw Ryder stock rise from $17 a share to $50 a share.

Sanchez, 47, is only the company’s fifth CEO since its founding in the Great Depression. A Miami native, he becomes one of only three CEOs of a Fortune 500 company headquartered south of Palm Beach County. The other: AutoNation’s Mike Jackson and World Fuel Services’ Michael Kasbar.

8. Miami Marlins Buyers Remorse

The debut season of Miami’s first official Major League Baseball team brought a string of disappointments on and off the field. Promises of a revitalized Little Havana retail scene around the tax-funded stadium instead brought vacant storefronts. Attendance, a big part of the economic argument for the $635 million stadium, ended up being the worst for a new ballpark in 30 years.

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