Amir Taheri
Cairo - ‘May Allah protect believers against fear!” This is one of the slogans that greet visitors arriving at Cairo Airport for the Islamic summit set to open here today.
Yet, in a sign that Allah’s protection may not be quite enough, the Egyptian hosts have moved the summit’s venue from the old Palace of Conferences to a new luxury hotel near the airport.
Heads of state from 26 countries are expected to attend the summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, along with senior officials from 50 other Muslim-majority nations across the globe.
The venue change came after police said they might be unable to prevent anti-government demonstrators from laying siege to the “palace.”
For weeks, the government of Egyptian President Mohammad Morsi has been shaken by mass protests in Cairo and half a dozen other cities, with army chief Gen. Abdul-Fattah al-Sissi warning that the Egyptian state may face “total collapse.”
Al-Sissi’s melodramatic statement, posted on his Facebook page, may well be exaggerated, yet it’s clear that Morsi has lost a good part of the goodwill he had earned on his election last year.
The summit was supposed to come to Cairo back in 2011, while President Hosni Mubarak was still in charge. It was scrapped when the Arab Spring swept Mubarak away, paving the way for Islamist takeover under the Muslim Brotherhood with Morsi as president.
Morsi had hoped to use the summit to launch Egypt’s bid for the leadership of the Muslim world. But the demonstrations will make it hard to market his “Egyptian way,” which is supposedly midway between Turkey’s secular system and Iran’s theocratic setup.
Traditionally, Iran, Turkey and Egypt have been the main contenders for leadership in the so-called Muslim world. That rivalry was in abeyance for much of the 20th century, under secular regimes in all three countries.
Now, however, all three nations are back in the Islamic fold. Turkey is governed by a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran is run by mullahs, while Egypt has fallen under Brotherhood rule for the first time.
Yet all three countries are experiencing rough patches. On top of Egypt’s turmoil, Turkey’s “economic miracle” is fizzling out, while Iran is heading for a deep political crisis ahead of its presidential elections in June.
So some look to Saudi Arabia, the traditional dark horse in the race for Islamic leadership. But the Saudis, under aging leadership, may lack the political energy needed to promote a leadership claim.
Still, checkbook diplomacy has secured Saudi Arabia numerous allies in the Muslim world, notably Pakistan and several nations in sub-Saharan Africa. And the kingdom also hosts and finances the OIC’s headquarters in Jeddah.
Iran will be represented by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his last major diplomatic appearance before his term ends in June. He has vowed to force the summit to “focus on the Palestinian issue” and relieve pressure on President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where the bloody civil war continues.
But Egyptian sources tell me Ahmadinejad is likely to fail on both scores. Assad has been excluded from the summit, and Morsi has insisted that there should be no attempt at fomenting trouble between Egypt and Israel.
Plus, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan is slated to promote a new initiative on Syria that could include the use of force to protect a number of safe havens for victims of Assad’s campaign of repression.
With the leading powers all distracted and at odds, the summit may seek some “safe” issue to offer a veneer of unity. The group’s retiring secretary-general, Turkish diplomat Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, offers “the threat of disintegration” of a number of Muslim-majority countries in Africa, where non-Muslim communities feel threatened by the rise of ideological Islam. The secession of South Sudan from Muslim-dominated Sudan, he says, sets “a dangerous example” that others in Africa may follow.
Condemning the shrinkage of the Muslim world may well be all that the leaders of the Muslim world can agree upon.
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